Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.004340 0.004570 0.004807 0.005069 0.005350 0.005645 0.005977
2025-08-24 0.003927 0.004266 0.004629 0.005049 0.005523 0.006046 0.006666
2025-08-31 0.003657 0.004053 0.004491 0.005013 0.005623 0.006319 0.007178
2025-09-07 0.003431 0.003863 0.004350 0.004946 0.005661 0.006499 0.007570
2025-09-14 0.003242 0.003698 0.004221 0.004875 0.005676 0.006641 0.007907
2025-09-21 0.003123 0.003604 0.004167 0.004882 0.005779 0.006883 0.008374
2025-09-28 0.002936 0.003419 0.003991 0.004728 0.005667 0.006846 0.008472
2025-10-05 0.002843 0.003342 0.003940 0.004724 0.005741 0.007043 0.008883
2025-10-12 0.002799 0.003321 0.003957 0.004803 0.005921 0.007384 0.009503
2025-10-19 0.002706 0.003236 0.003888 0.004766 0.005945 0.007513 0.009834
2025-10-26 0.002625 0.003162 0.003829 0.004739 0.005977 0.007653 0.010184
2025-11-02 0.002547 0.003088 0.003767 0.004703 0.005995 0.007771 0.010507
2025-11-09 0.002520 0.003079 0.003789 0.004783 0.006176 0.008129 0.011213
2025-11-16 0.002455 0.003019 0.003742 0.004765 0.006218 0.008290 0.011629
2025-11-23 0.002388 0.002954 0.003686 0.004732 0.006237 0.008415 0.011993
2025-11-30 0.002315 0.002878 0.003612 0.004670 0.006209 0.008467 0.012241
2025-12-07 0.002244 0.002804 0.003538 0.004604 0.006172 0.008501 0.012461
2025-12-14 0.002204 0.002768 0.003515 0.004611 0.006242 0.008702 0.012968
2025-12-21 0.002113 0.002662 0.003392 0.004468 0.006082 0.008535 0.012838
2025-12-28 0.002075 0.002626 0.003365 0.004465 0.006131 0.008701 0.013293
2026-01-04 0.002064 0.002628 0.003391 0.004538 0.006300 0.009066 0.014123
2026-01-11 0.002018 0.002581 0.003345 0.004503 0.006300 0.009154 0.014459
2026-01-18 0.001978 0.002539 0.003306 0.004478 0.006313 0.009263 0.014840